Back in 2018, a mere eight words to ignite the party's annual gathering and to show Labour was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. While not precisely soaring oratory, the words met with wild cheering as delegates stood for spontaneous acclamation.
When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.
During that deeply polarized period of 2018, departing from the prepared script like this was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize Brexit voters in working-class seats over the pro-European instincts within Labour. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – if only for a while – into a political gambler who championed the party's base against a leader he would later replace.
The Shift of Stance & Settled Debates
In the years since, much has happened, especially for Starmer himself. An early move after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue was resolved by the previous year’s general election. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge promises that forbade rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.
Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in key seats, even if polling evidence indicates many of them have died or changed their minds.
A Lid That Rattles on the EU
However, it’s now the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled party leader. While EU relations may not be the central crisis in UK politics, a lid which was firmly shut for five years is beginning to rattle again.
The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up their language regarding the damage that leaving the EU has caused to the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool to criticize Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and is still his sole political accomplishment.
Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has left Britain with a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the minor adjustments so far offered by the government. The PM's much-touted relationship reset negotiated with the EU in 2024 offers economic benefits measured in fractions of a percent.
Internal Pressure & Ambitious Proposals
Rachel Reeves is among those trying to overcome long-standing Home Office resistance to a broader scheme designed to boost growth program for young people allowing youths can travel between Britain and Europe for work or study.
The deputy prime minister muses openly about the “self-evident” benefits of joining an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, last week supported an opposition proposal on customs union membership.
While Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees EU policy, now present at every cabinet meeting, insists the firm boundaries are still in place, there exist avenues to work around them. One idea would be to declaring the commencement of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the following election platform, with implementation only if Labour won a new electoral mandate.
Starmer's Deep-Seated Doubts
Yet, Starmer has most recently damping it all down on the idea cautioning that rejoining a European customs area could undermine the commercial agreements with the US, which he regards as signature achievements of his government.
It is understood that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, stemming from several key concerns.
- Firstly, he thinks a customs pact has been made significantly more difficult as ministers are busily de-aligning from EU regulations in numerous sectors, including the environment.
- Second, the exorbitant price set for the UK for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure in talks has convinced UK negotiators that European nations have little interest in cutting special deals with Britain and are more focused on demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
- Lastly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is viewed by some influential figures in Downing Street as a reason for the UK to maintain distance from Europe.
An Alarming Strategy and Strategic Considerations
This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper asserts Europe faces cultural extinction because of immigration. It includes only one reference of the UK, found on a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in British politics to encourage the growth of nationalist movements.
But, far from concluding that this makes America an unreliable partner, ministers reportedly fear that aligning closer with Europe would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.
Leadership Speculation and The Echo from the Past
All of which returns us to 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not an attempt for the leadership but simply an effort to preserve the possibility of staying in the EU in a future vote. Indeed, back then, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he currently seems to reject.
Observers within the Prime Minister's office have noticed that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would stand in any leadership election, is part of a group of cabinet ministers letting it be known they want to go further on Europe.
Aides to Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a future race for the top job, maintain she refuses to comment on her position regarding a customs pact because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.
The Obvious Danger & A Prudent Reminder
The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters are to be found.
It would be prudent for Starmer to recall the impact that a short phrase had for him seven years ago. There are options for a major proposal on EU relations that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should explore them himself, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.
